EUR/JPY week 42

The Japanese Yen lost 0.038 points or 0.04% to 105.504 against the US Dollar on Wednesday. A safe-haven bid for the US Dollar was prompted following news that Johnson & Johnson had temporarily paused its COVID-19 vaccine candidate in clinical trials due to an unexplained illness in a study participant. In addition, the International Monetary Fund said the economic recovery is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread, noting that “While the global economy is coming back, the ascent will likely be long, uneven and uncertain.” On the data front, Japan’s industrial production rose by 1.0% from the previous month in August following an 8.7% growth in the prior month and posting the weakest increase in industrial output since May.

Retail trader data shows 50.00% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.00 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Oct 01 when EUR/JPY traded near 123.97, price has moved 0.67% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.38% higher than yesterday and 53.73% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 14.78% lower than yesterday and 32.65% lower from last week. 

Our data shows traders are now net-long EUR/JPY for the first time since Oct 01, 2020 when EUR/JPY traded near 123.97. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/JPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.

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